Although I aim to invest in fundamentally sound companies, I will use technical analysis techniques to help me determine when to buy or potentially sell a stock.
Today, I’ll go over some recent examples of technical charts of growth stocks: Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and JD.com (NASDAQ:JD). But these are techniques that you can apply to any stock chart, including dividend stocks.
There’s a lot of information here. So, it’s probably better to watch the YouTube video instead and pause it whenever you need to. However, in case you prefer a blog version, here it is:
JD Stock Chart Reading
JD’s recent technical chart is beautiful and perfect learning material so I’ll start with this one.
Figure 1. It bottomed and then consolidated with higher lows before breaking out from the resistance that was marked by its 200-day simple moving average (or SMA) that’s in red.
Figure 2. Notice that two indicators suggested a potential bottom. First, the Relative Strength Index (or RSI) hit below 30 (so the stock was oversold) and it eventually rose above the 30 mark.
Second, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (or MACD) had the black line crossing above the red line, which indicated a change in direction of the stock.
The bottom was finally confirmed when JD stock climbed above the 50-day SMA, and it consolidated to eventually break above the long-term SMA.
This article with an additional example using Tencent (OTCMKTS:TCEHY) first appeared in the Seeking Alpha Marketplace service DGI Across North America.
Have you ever missed out on high-flying winners? Have you ever been stuck in a (seemingly) losing stock for a long time? I’ll use Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) as examples for illustration.
How to Build a Position in Your Favorite High-Flying Winner
An investment in Amazon 10 years ago has become a 24-bagger. In other words, it delivered returns of roughly 37.5% per year. That said, we’ve been in a bull market since 2009.
In a correction, it’s possible that Amazon stock could fall 30-50%. In a normal market though, one of the best ways to build a position in a high-flying stock like Amazon is buying it periodically.
Some investors wait to buy stocks on dips. However, you’ll notice that in the last few years, dips in Amazon stock didn’t occur very often.
Source: Google Finance with author annotation – Potential buy points when using the “buying on dips” strategy
If you waited for a dip in Amazon stock in June 2017, you wouldn’t have gotten one until April 2018. However, by then, the stock had already appreciated +40%.
At this point in the cycle, I’m leaning more towards buying high-flying stocks on a correction, whenever it may occur. Share in the comments below if you have a different opinion.
In my book, fundamental analysis always trumps over technical analysis. That said, using both hand-in-hand is useful. After deciding that I like a company’s fundamentals, and that it can be bought at proper valuations, I like using technical analysis to help determine whether it is a good time to buy. Looking at the relative strength indicator or the RSI is a simple way to tell whether a stock is currently overbought or oversold. Investopedia defines RSI as “A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset.” When the RSI reaches 30 or under, the stock is considered oversold. When the RSI reaches 70, the stock is considered overbought.
RSI Example with Bed, Bath & Beyond
Just because the stock price reaches RSI 30, it could still keep going down. At the top of the Bed, Bath & Beyond (NYSE:BBBY) daily chart below, we see the RSI, indicating oversold for as long as month!
RSI Example with Union Pacific
On the contrary, a fundamentally strong company might seldom hit the RSI 30 area. Even when Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) hit RSI 70 (became overbought), the price didn’t go down much, and only traded sideways for awhile. The sideways trading led the RSI to get back to 50, before the price went higher again.