Tag Archives: TSX:CM

CIBC: Stable And Safe With A 5% Yield

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Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (TSX:CM)(NYSE:CM) generates stable earnings, which translates to a stable stock most of the time. Stable earnings coupled with a sustainable payout ratio makes CIBC’s current yield of 5% solid.

CIBC’s stock often gives the notion that it underperforms the other Big Six Canadian banks, but as we shall see, that’s not always the case.

Year-to-date results

In the first nine months of the fiscal year, CIBC reported adjusted earnings per share (“EPS”) of C$9.07, down 1.5% against the comparable period a year ago. These are stable enough earnings and led to a payout ratio of just under 46%. As well, its return on equity fell 2% to 15.8% year over year.

Is CIBC a Buy?

Over the next 3-5 years, the other Big Six Canadian banks are estimated to experience EPS growth that will be more than twice as fast as CIBC’s estimated EPS growth of 2.2%. Therefore, the stock trades at the lowest P/E among the banks for a reason.

It’s best to consider names like Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD)(NYSE:TD) or National Bank of Canada (TSX:NA) for long-term investment, especially on dips.

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The Big Short in Canadian Banks

Reviewing history, the Big 5 Canadian banks actually don’t have a high short interest, except for CIBC. The Big 5 Canadian banks are some of the most profitable businesses on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

For long-term investors who are looking for stable dividends and stable growth, it does not make sense to sell your stakes in the banks, unless you have a huge allocation, own a large stake in CIBC, or are worried about the health of the housing market in Canada. You’ve got to hold the stock to get the dividends!

We believe there’s a higher probability of slower growth or stagnant growth in the housing market than a meltdown.

Should You Sell Your Big Canadian Bank Shares?

Should you sell your bank shares? The short answer is “no” unless you own CIBC stock and are worried about the health of the housing market. Royal Bank has the least short interest, which indicates investors are finding it to be the safest bank perhaps because the bank is the leader and largest among the Big 5 and also has a focus on high net worth clients.

Here’s a longer answer to the question. Ultimately, investors should answer these questions for themselves and then make a decision on whether to buy/hold/sell accordingly:

  • Why did you buy the big banks in the first place? What’s your goal?
  • What’s your allocation in the Canadian banks or each bank?
  • What’s your investment horizon?

Here’s our answer with regards to our situation:

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Benefit from Rising Interest Rates with the Big 5 Canadian Banks

This is a guest contribution by Nick McCullum of Sure Dividend. Sure Dividend uses The 8 Rules of Dividend Investing to identify high-quality dividend stocks suitable for long-term investment.

The Big 5 Canadian banks offer great dividends and the stocks look poised for steady long-term growth if interest rates continue to go higher.

This article will discuss:

  • why we think interest rates in North America are going higher,
  • 5 actionable investment ideas that allow investors to benefit from rising interest rates, and
  • why the banks will benefit from rising interest rates

Interest Rates Are Heading Higher

In both Canada and the United States, the trend is clear: interest rates are on their way up after a prolonged period at near-zero benchmark rates.

In July, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest for the first time since 2010. While the bank did not communicate any concrete plans for future rate hikes, it is likely that more are coming.

Graph of Bank of Canada Overnight Money Market Financing Rate from 1975-2017

Source: YCharts

In the United States, the trend is even more clear.

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