Tag Archives: NASDAQ:GOOGL

Are High Return Investments Too Good to be True?

Who doesn’t want high returns on their investments? However, when something sounds too good to be true, it probably is. More specifically, when certain stocks deliver excellent returns, ask yourself what’s the risk behind them.

coins stacking higher and higher with plant behind each stack indicating growth of money

Here are some examples.

High Return Tech Stocks

Shopify (TSX:SHOP)(NYSE:SHOP) has got to be one of the highest return tech stocks out there. Here’s a chart that shows its total returns since inception compared to other big tech names.

Yes, Shopify stock kicked the butts of the FANG stocks, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG).

SHOP Chart

SHOP data by YCharts

However, Shopify’s valuation is super duper expensive. At about US$200 per share, it trades at a blended P/E of about 500 and a PEG ratio of about 20.

Compare that to:

  • Facebook’s P/E of about 23.2 and a PEG ratio of about 1.5 at US$175 per share,
  • Amazon’s P/E of about 83.6 and a PEG ratio of roughly 1.4-2.8 at US$1850 per share,
  • Netflix’s P/E of about 120 and a PEG ratio of 2.4-3.9 at US$361 per share, and
  • Alphabet’s P/E of about 27.3 and a PEG ratio of 1.5-1.9 at US$1208 per share for GOOGL.

Surely, Shopify is growing at a super fast rate. For example, revenue growth was 59% in 2018. However, because of its astronomical valuation, it’s especially subject to an especially huge drawdown when we experience a market meltdown.

By the way, I don’t categorize the little correction we had from October to December 2018 as a market meltdown. In that period, Shopify fell from a high of about US$168 to a low of about US$120 for a drop of 28%. Imagine what a real market meltdown can do to Shopify stock (at least in the short term).

Biotech Stocks

Biotech stocks did very well for a long time. The long-term price chart of iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (NASDAQ:IBB) illustrates the big picture.

Source: Google Finance with author annotatio
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Why This Growth Stock Went Up +10% on Monday

This first appeared in the Seeking Alpha Marketplace service DGI Across North America, from which you can get real-time buy and sell alerts (and explanations) when I make moves in my portfolio.

Summary

  • NetEase up 10.4% on Monday. My position is up nearly 17% in a little over 2 months.
  • News came out that it plans to buy ~$11 billion of inventory over the next 3 years from the U.S., Europe, and Japan to sell to the Chinese market.
  • NetEase is primarily a video game publisher in China that has been diversifying into e-commerce.
  • NetEase is reasonably valued after the pop based on the consensus low-end earnings growth estimation.
  • Interested investors can nibble here to start a position, but will be safer to buy on a meaningful dip — perhaps one will occur when the company reports Q3 results on Nov 15.

Occasionally, dividendfocused portfolios need some growth to spice things up. And NetEase Inc. (ADR) (NASDAQ:NTES) is a good candidate for consideration.

NetEase stock appreciated 10.4% on Monday. In the DGI Across North America service, I gave a real-time alert and the reasoning for buying NetEase, which is now up nearly 17% in a little over 2 months.

NetEase position November 2017

Source: Author

The following quotes are excerpts from my previous article that’s available in the service.

NetEase was founded in 1997 and has been listed on the NASDAQ since June 30, 2000. Even for an investment that was made at the end of 2007 would have delivered an annualized return of 32%!

This outperformed Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) which has delivered an annualized return of 10.8% in the period, Baidu (ADR)(NASDAQ:BIDU): 19.6%, and even Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN): 27.2%.

NetEase is the second-largest video game publisher in China.

In 2016, NetEase generated 73.3% of its revenue from its online games.

NetEase PC games Q2 2017

Source: Company Q2 2017 presentation – Slide 6

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Have New Money To Invest? Which Sectors To Buy? Which To Avoid?

Year-to-date, the Utilities ETF (NYSEARCA:XLU) has appreciated 21% and the big two telecoms, AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ), have also appreciated more than 20%. Those are amazing returns especially including the above-average dividend yields utilities and telecoms typically offer.

However, with the bid up prices, it has become riskier to invest new money in utilities and telecoms.

The top five utilities in the XLU are all overvalued, including NextEra Energy Inc (NYSE:NEE), Duke Energy Corp (NYSE:DUK), Southern Co (NYSE:SO), Dominion Resources, Inc. (NYSE:D), and American Electric Power Company Inc (NYSE:AEP).

Reversion to the mean can happen for any of these utilities that are overvalued, and it could mean negative returns in the short term.
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