Category Archives: Seeking Alpha article

Should You Buy Shopify Today?

Growth stocks shouldn’t be taken lightly. Just look at the Shopify Inc. [TSX:SHOP](NYSE:SHOP) stock to get an idea of what I mean. It has more than tripled in the last 12 months. You can’t argue against Shopify’s outperformance, except that it hasn’t turned a profit – yet. The company is expected to start making a profit as soon as late this year.

Shopping today is different from shopping 10 years ago. Nowadays, merchants may sell their products through their online store, their physical stores, marketplaces, social media, mobile apps, and other sales channels.

Shopify “provides (merchants) with a single view of their business and customers across all of their sales channels and enables them to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, ship orders, build customer relationships, and leverage analytics and reporting from one integrated back office”. – 2016 annual report (pdf)

Rapid growth

Shopify’s growth strategies focus on growing its merchant base. At the end of 2016, Shopify had more than 377,500 merchants from roughly 175 countries using its platform with a strong focus in the United States. This suggests there’s much room for potential international growth in the future.

From 2013 to 2016, Shopify grew its revenue at a compound annual growth rate of 98%. This year, management expects to grow its revenue by 49-54% to $580-600 million.

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When Is It The Best Time To Buy O And The Others?

If you’re looking for income, check out the triple net lease space, which has experienced a nice pullback recently. Particularly, for Realty Income Corp. (NYSE:O) and its two other peers, National Retail Properties, Inc. (NYSE:NNN) and Store Capital Corp. (NYSE:STOR), their shares have declined 14-25% in the last year.

I thought Store Capital was a good bargain at below $21 per share. Yet, in a matter of a few days, the shares have continued to fall another 5% or so.

In the last few days, all three companies have experienced pullbacks. So, there are some forces that are affecting the industry. The anticipation of higher interest rates (and rates actually rising) are some of them.

Realty Income shares have been the most resilient no matter in the price action of the last year or the last few days. This is not a surprise because as I said before, Realty Income is the bluest of the blue chips in the group.

After the pullbacks, the stocks offer decent yields of 4.6-5.8%.

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2 Stocks Pulled Back +11% in a Day: Are They Bargains?

The market is full of drama. Yesterday, two stocks fell more than 11%. These are rather big drops for dividend growth stocks and warrants further investigation.

First, there’s Cardinal Health Inc (NYSE:CAH) which declined by 11.5%. It dragged down its competitors: McKesson Corporation (NYSE:MCK) and AmerisourceBergen Corp. (NYSE:ABC) by more than 4% as well.

Then, there’s W.W. Grainger Inc (NYSE:GWW) that fell 11.4%.

One I think is undervalued. The other not so much.

Why did Cardinal Health shares fall?

The company expects its earnings per share (“EPS”) for this year to come out to about $5.35 — which is the low end of its guidance.

Additionally, the company is acquiring Medtronic’s (NYSE:MDT) patient product portfolio for $6.1 billion, which is a big acquisition — coming out to a quarter of Cardinal Health’s market cap after the 11% pullback.

The acquisition will add diversification to Cardinal Health’s portfolio, and there won’t be dilution to current shareholders as the company plans to finance the acquisition with $4.5 billion in new senior unsecured notes (i.e. debt) and existing cash.

The acquisition is expected to close in Q3 (i.e. fiscal Q1) and is expected to be accretive to earnings in the first fiscal year and even more accretive after that. “By the end of fiscal 2020, the company assumes synergies will exceed $150 million annually,” as stated from the press release linked above.

It seems the acquisition will actually benefit shareholders over the long run. Still, the market generally likes to drag down the share price of the acquirer, which is Cardinal Health in this case. Adding in the EPS forecast, the shares were dragged down quite harshly.

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