Category Archives: Market Outlook

Is this a Market Top? What Will You Do?

You might have noticed the general market represented by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is trading in a sideways channel between roughly $185 and $209.

SPY technical chart May 2016

In fact, Financial Visualization’s daily chart marks a double top, which technically means it’s going down from here. There’s a strong support at $180, but if it falls through that, there will be more downside.

SPY finviz chart May 2016

OK, so all of this is like reading tea leaves. How does the market look fundamentally?

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Consumer Staple and Utility Stocks are Near All Time Highs

The S&P 500 that represents the U.S. market is near an all-time high which might make stock investors nervous, especially when the market has been trading sideways. What should stock investors do? The short answer is to ignore the market and focus on individual companies. The long answer will come later in this article.

The S&P 500 has been trading in a sideways channel since August 2015. Right now, NYSEARCA:SPY is back at the top of the channel, and if it doesn’t break above the US$208 resistance persistently, it will head back down. If SPY falls past the US$185 support persistently, this will mark the top of the market for the time being.

SPY chart

SPY Weekly Chart

Investors have been piling on to the consumer staples and utilities as the select ETFs have been hitting new highs. See the Consumer Staples ETF (NYSEARCA:XLP) and Utilities ETF (NYSEARCA:XLU) charts below.

XLP chart

Consumer Staples ETF Weekly Chart

XLU chart

Utilities ETF Weekly Chart

Both the Consumer Staples ETF and Utilities ETF look like they’re losing steam as they hit or are near overbought territories. Read More