Category Archives: Beginner Technical Analysis

How to Build a Position in Your Favorite Stocks

This article with an additional example using Tencent (OTCMKTS:TCEHY) first appeared in the Seeking Alpha Marketplace service DGI Across North America.

Have you ever missed out on high-flying winners? Have you ever been stuck in a (seemingly) losing stock for a long time? I’ll use Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) as examples for illustration.

person with a question

How to Build a Position in Your Favorite High-Flying Winner

An investment in Amazon 10 years ago has become a 24-bagger. In other words, it delivered returns of roughly 37.5% per year. That said, we’ve been in a bull market since 2009.

In a correction, it’s possible that Amazon stock could fall 30-50%. In a normal market though, one of the best ways to build a position in a high-flying stock like Amazon is buying it periodically.

Some investors wait to buy stocks on dips. However, you’ll notice that in the last few years, dips in Amazon stock didn’t occur very often.

chart showing dips of Amazon stock between 2016 and 2018

Source: Google Finance with author annotation – Potential buy points when using the “buying on dips” strategy

If you waited for a dip in Amazon stock in June 2017, you wouldn’t have gotten one until April 2018. However, by then, the stock had already appreciated +40%.

At this point in the cycle, I’m leaning more towards buying high-flying stocks on a correction, whenever it may occur. Share in the comments below if you have a different opinion.

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Oversold or Overbought? Relative Strength Indicator Examples

When to Use the Relative Strength Indicator?

In my book, fundamental analysis always trumps over technical analysis. That said, using both hand-in-hand is useful. After deciding that I like a company’s fundamentals, and that it can be bought at proper valuations, I like using technical analysis to help determine whether it is a good time to buy. Looking at the relative strength indicator or the RSI is a simple way to tell whether a stock is currently overbought or oversold. Investopedia defines RSI as “A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset.” When the RSI reaches 30 or under, the stock is considered oversold. When the RSI reaches 70, the stock is considered overbought.

RSI Example with Bed, Bath & Beyond

Just because the stock price reaches RSI 30, it could still keep going down. At the top of the Bed, Bath & Beyond (NYSE:BBBY) daily chart below, we see the RSI, indicating oversold for as long as month!

Bed, Bath & Beyond Daily Chart

Source: Stockcharts.com

RSI Example with Union Pacific

On the contrary, a fundamentally strong company might seldom hit the RSI 30 area. Even when Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) hit RSI 70 (became overbought), the price didn’t go down much, and only traded sideways for awhile. The sideways trading led the RSI to get back to 50, before the price went higher again.

Union Pacific Weekly Chart

Source: Stockcharts.com

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